Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
- Mac Jones’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 64.7% to 72.4%.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 9th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
282
Passing Yards
282
Passing Yards
