Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 227.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 227.5 (-133) after it opened @ 227.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 67.8 plays per game.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown weak efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.87 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in football.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens have used play action on 29.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 117.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
209
Passing Yards
209
Passing Yards
