Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 271.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 271.5 (-115) after it opened @ 280.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kirk Cousins to attempt 38.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all QBs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.10 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.75 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards