Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-118/-104).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 279.5 (-104) after it opened @ 283.5 (-130).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.0 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
- Justin Herbert has been among the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 285.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 5th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
298
Passing Yards
298
Passing Yards
