Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 197.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 197.5 (-105) after it opened @ 184.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.8 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
- Justin Fields has been among the worst passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 157.0 yards per game while checking in at the 11th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
201
Passing Yards
201
Passing Yards
