Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Lions vs. Commanders
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 232.5 (-115) after it opened @ 234.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Jared Goff has attempted 37.3 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 92nd percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-most yards in football (262.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has displayed weak efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 8.22 yards-per-target: the 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.6% pass rate.
- Jared Goff’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 54.0%.
- Jared Goff has been among the worst per-play passers in football since the start of last season, averaging just 6.44 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 16th percentile.
- The Washington Commanders defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
