Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 232.5 (-115) after it opened @ 234.5 (-115).

Pros

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff has attempted 37.3 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 92nd percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-most yards in football (262.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has displayed weak efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 8.22 yards-per-target: the 7th-most in the league.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.6% pass rate.
Jared Goff’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.2% to 54.0%.
Jared Goff has been among the worst per-play passers in football since the start of last season, averaging just 6.44 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 16th percentile.
The Washington Commanders defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards