Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 37.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Jared Goff has been among the best QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 256.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
- Jared Goff has been among the best per-play QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.42 yards-per-target while checking in at the 77th percentile.
Cons
- The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Lions rank as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 52.4% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Jared Goff’s passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.1% to 61.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
289
Passing Yards
289
Passing Yards
