Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jameis Winston from EV Insight

Jameis WinstonPassing Yards

Right now, Jameis Winston’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 217.5 (-131) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to attempt 39.8 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.6 plays per game.
Jameis Winston has been among the weakest passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 173.0 yards per game while grading out in the 14th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 6.79 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards