Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jameis WinstonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Jameis Winston’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 217.5 (-131) after it opened @ 226.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to attempt 39.8 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.6 plays per game.
- Jameis Winston has been among the weakest passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 173.0 yards per game while grading out in the 14th percentile.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 6.79 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards
281
Passing Yards
