Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 285.5 (+100) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 38.8 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
Derek Carr has been among the best QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 259.0 yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

Cons

The Raiders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Derek Carr’s throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 59.9%.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
313
Passing Yards