Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Raiders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 285.5 (+100) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 38.8 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Derek Carr has been among the best QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 259.0 yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The Raiders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Derek Carr’s throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 59.9%.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
313
Passing Yards
313
Passing Yards
