Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cooper RushPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Bengals
Right now, Cooper Rush’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 203.5 (-114) after it opened @ 218.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 66.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.79 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on just 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards
262
Passing Yards
