Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Giants vs. Panthers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 217.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.6 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-most yards in the league (240.0 per game) vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Baker Mayfield has been among the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season with a 61.3% Completion%, ranking in the 25th percentile.
- The New York Giants defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.71 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
