Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 217.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-most yards in the league (240.0 per game) vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Baker Mayfield has been among the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season with a 61.3% Completion%, ranking in the 25th percentile.
The New York Giants defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.71 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards