Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Buccaneers vs. Bears
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 223.5 (-110) after it opened @ 228.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in football vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season (73.2%).
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.77 yards-per-target: the most in the league.
- The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
- Baker Mayfield has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 71.0 yards per game while ranking in the 6th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
