Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Anthony RichardsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Anthony Richardson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 199.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Houston Texans defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.55 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 197.0 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards
