Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-113) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 16.1 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has picked up 58.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.13 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this season (59.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (78.8%).
Najee Harris’s ground efficiency (3.75 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (11th percentile among RBs).
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards