Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-113) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 16.1 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- Najee Harris has picked up 58.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).
- The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.13 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this season (59.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (78.8%).
- Najee Harris’s ground efficiency (3.75 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (11th percentile among RBs).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
