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Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for J.K. Dobbins from EV Insight

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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 18

Bengals vs. Ravens

Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).

Pros

  • THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects J.K. Dobbins to accrue 14.5 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
  • J.K. Dobbins has garnered 44.2% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
  • J.K. Dobbins has generated 63.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (85th percentile).
  • J.K. Dobbins’s rushing effectiveness (5.51 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (92nd percentile among RBs).
Cons

  • The Ravens are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 99 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards

Previous Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D’Andre Swift from EV Insight Next Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight
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