Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 92.5 (-130) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 23.8 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has earned 84.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been among the best RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.67 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Cons

The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Derrick Henry has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (105.0).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.37 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards