Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Treylon BurksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Treylon Burks’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-120) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Treylon Burks has been among the bottom wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 0th percentile.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63.6%) to WRs this year (63.6%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs this year, conceding 7.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
