Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- Robert Tonyan has run a route on 59.8% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Robert Tonyan’s receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 70.8% to 83.7%.
- The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (59.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Robert Tonyan has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
- Robert Tonyan’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling just 7.64 yards-per-target vs a 8.75 figure last year.
- Robert Tonyan’s ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, averaging a measly 3.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
