Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.07 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.4% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 62.0 yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Cons

The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Michael Pittman has put up quite a few less air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards