Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-115/-119).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 100.0% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (170.0) versus wideouts this year.

Cons

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Ja’Marr Chase has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (92.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging just 8.91 yards-per-target vs a 10.34 mark last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards