NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-115/-119).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 100.0% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (170.0) versus wideouts this year.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Ja’Marr Chase has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (92.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
- Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging just 8.91 yards-per-target vs a 10.34 mark last season.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
