Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will be forced to utilize backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
Darren Waller has put up quite a few less air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
Darren Waller’s 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 56.5.
Darren Waller’s ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, compiling a mere 2.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.32 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards