Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders will be forced to utilize backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Raiders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
- Darren Waller has put up quite a few less air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
- Darren Waller’s 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 56.5.
- Darren Waller’s ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, compiling a mere 2.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.32 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
