Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.7% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accumulate 7.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- D.J. Moore has notched a lot fewer receiving yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
- The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 143.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
