Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-165/+130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-165) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
- Christian Kirk has run fewer routes this year (94.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (81.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 7.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Christian Kirk has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 72.6% to 68.0%.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
