NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been among the worst tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
