Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock WrightReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Brock Wright’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-115) after it opened @ 14.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (76.2%) to TEs this year (76.2%).
- The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has given up the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) to tight ends this year.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
11
Receiving Yards
11
Receiving Yards
