Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brock Wright from EV Insight

Brock WrightReceiving Yards

Right now, Brock Wright’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-115) after it opened @ 14.5 (-114).

Pros

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (76.2%) to TEs this year (76.2%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has given up the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) to tight ends this year.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
11
Receiving Yards