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Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

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Allen Lazard

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 18

Packers vs. Lions

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-137) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • Allen Lazard has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (91.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.2%).
  • Allen Lazard has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
  • The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Allen Lazard has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (57.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
Cons

  • The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Allen Lazard’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.5% to 63.6%.
  • The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards

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