NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-137) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- Allen Lazard has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (91.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.2%).
- Allen Lazard has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Allen Lazard has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (57.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
Cons
- The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Allen Lazard’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.5% to 63.6%.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
