Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Eagles vs. Giants
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (92.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.7%).
- A.J. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 80.0 yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
- The New York Giants defense has given up the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the league (158.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- The Eagles are a massive 17-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus wide receivers this year, giving up 7.89 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
