NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Joshua DobbsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 182.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 182.5 (-110) after it opened @ 200.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joshua Dobbs to attempt 31.2 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Joshua Dobbs has been among the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 57.9% Completion%, ranking in the 16th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (68.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
205
Passing Yards
205
Passing Yards
