Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 256.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 38.6 passes per game this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among QBs.
- Joe Burrow has thrown for substantially more yards per game (294.0) this year than he did last year (266.0).
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 4th-most yards in the league (261.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
