Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Colts vs. Texans
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 223.5 (-114) after it opened @ 204.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.2 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Davis Mills’s throwing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 60.7%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards
212
Passing Yards
