Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
49ers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-110) after it opened @ 239.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 69.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 9th-most yards in football (246.0 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.9%).
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in football.
- The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The 49ers are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
220
Passing Yards
220
Passing Yards
