Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 215.5 (-115) after it opened @ 207.5 (-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Andy Dalton’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.7% to 66.0%.
Andy Dalton’s pass-game effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 7.49 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.19 rate last year.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-most yards in football (251.0 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Cons

The Saints are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards