Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zack MossRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Zack Moss’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to accumulate 17.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (66.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (23.6% in games he has played).
- Zack Moss’s running efficiency has improved this season, compiling 4.65 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.87 rate last season.
- The New York Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.35 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup quarterback Nick Foles in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
- The New York Giants defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
