Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-125/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (+100) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Tyler Allgeier has grinded out 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.12 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards
80
Rushing Yards
