Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 16.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Travis Etienne has generated 67.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (93rd percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the most yards in football (169 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-least run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 38.3% run rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards