Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to garner 16.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Travis Etienne has generated 67.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (93rd percentile).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the most yards in football (169 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars rank as the 9th-least run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 38.3% run rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
