NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-120/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-120) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Saquon Barkley has run for a lot more yards per game (79.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
- The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
