Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-125) after it opened @ 89.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 16.5 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has been given 63.5% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has grinded out 88.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (98th percentile).

Cons

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends grade out as the 10th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards