Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-148) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 14.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this year (59.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
- Najee Harris’s ground efficiency (3.60 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (5th percentile among RBs).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 89 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
