Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Leonard Fournette from EV Insight

Leonard FournetteRushing Yards

Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-115) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized motion in their offense on 45.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 33.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Leonard Fournette has run for significantly fewer yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards