Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-115) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized motion in their offense on 45.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 33.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Leonard Fournette has run for significantly fewer yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
