Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-133) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to notch 14.1 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- Latavius Murray has been a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this year (57.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.5%).
- Latavius Murray has run for substantially more yards per game (52.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends project as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
