NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Raiders vs. 49ers
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 17.6 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Josh Jacobs has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this year (87.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (67.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (103.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Raiders are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the least yards in the league (just 75 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
