Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
- Joe Mixon has averaged 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).
- The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 31st-worst group of safeties in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 33.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his team’s running game this week (59.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.4% in games he has played).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
