Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jerick McKinnon from EV Insight

Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards

Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-135) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chiefs are a big 12.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this year (22.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.5%).
Jerick McKinnon has rushed for many more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best DT corps in football this year with their run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Rushing Yards