Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-135) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a big 12.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this year (22.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.5%).
- Jerick McKinnon has rushed for many more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Denver Broncos defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best DT corps in football this year with their run defense.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Rushing Yards
23
Rushing Yards
