Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jeff Wilson from EV Insight

Jeff WilsonRushing Yards

Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).

Pros

Jeffery Wilson has been a more integral piece of his team’s running game this year (47.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (27.9%).
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Jeffery Wilson has picked up 55.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (76th percentile).
Jeffery Wilson’s rushing effectiveness has improved this year, notching 5.27 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.77 mark last year.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 5th-worst collection of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 105 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards