Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-123/-111).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-123) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects James Conner to earn 19.0 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
- James Conner has picked up 60.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (83rd percentile).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the league (138 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to utilize backup QB David Blough this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Cardinals are a big 7.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
