Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-135) after it opened @ 47.5 (-120).
Pros
- Devin Singletary has picked up 55.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (76th percentile).
- The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards
42
Rushing Yards
