Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-133) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to garner 16.4 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has received 76.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Opposing teams have run for the 5th-most yards in the league (144 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
