Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Raiders vs. 49ers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).
Pros
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 18.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
- Christian McCaffrey has averaged 66.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Christian McCaffrey has been a much bigger part of his team’s offense this season, playing on 71.3% of snaps vs just 60.0% last season.
- Christian McCaffrey has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 8th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
