Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).

Pros

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 18.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 66.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (91st percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Christian McCaffrey has been a much bigger part of his team’s offense this season, playing on 71.3% of snaps vs just 60.0% last season.
Christian McCaffrey has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 8th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards