Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cam AkersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chargers vs. Rams
Right now, Cam Akers’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to accumulate 17.5 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Cam Akers to be a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (68.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.2% in games he has played).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.50 yards-per-carry.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Rams rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 38.5% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Cam Akers’s ground efficiency (3.88 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (18th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
