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Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

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Aaron Jones

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 17

Packers vs. Vikings

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-135) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Aaron Jones has earned 50.7% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
  • The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
  • Aaron Jones has rushed for significantly more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
  • Aaron Jones’s ground effectiveness (4.99 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (92nd percentile among running backs).
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
  • The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
  • The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards

Previous NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/30) Next Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight