Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 5/6)
MLB Dream
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-135) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Aaron Jones has earned 50.7% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Aaron Jones has rushed for significantly more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- Aaron Jones’s ground effectiveness (4.99 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (92nd percentile among running backs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
- The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
